WDC: Russell and Leclerc have officially secured 4th and 5th in the WDC, respectively, with neither able to move up or down at all.
Norris, Piastri, and Verstappen are currently all still in contention to win, however that can change in Qatar. No matter what, Norris cannot win in the sprint, but he can clinch in the GP if he:
- Outscores Piastri by 2 or more points (across the entire weekend) – unless Norris wins the GP, in which case he just needs to outscore Piastri by 1 point, and
- Outscores Verstappen by 1 or more points – unless Verstappen wins the GP, in which case Norris needs to outscore him by 2 points.
If Norris outscores only one of Piastri or Verstappen by the appropriate amount, that driver will be eliminated, even if Norris does not clinch the title.
WCC: Mercedes are getting close to clinching 2nd in the WCC, which they can do in Qatar if they:
- Outscore Red Bull by 4 or more points over the entire weekend, and
- Are not outscored by Ferrari by more than 10 points.
As with Norris, it will not be possible for them to clinch in the sprint.
Notes:
-I believe I did the best and worst finishing positions calculations correctly, accounting for the fact that multiple drivers cannot finish in the same position. However there are 670 billion scoring possibilities in each GP and 5 billion in each sprint; so it's possible I missed a scenario or two that may change them slightly… If I made a mistake, I'm fairly certain it would only affect Albon or Williams.
– My apologies for missing Brazil; I had a paper to publish, a degree to [almost] finish, and jobs to get rejected from [side note: if there's anyone from a team out there looking to hire a race strategist, data analyst, or similar, please hit me up…]. Also my driver fucked it into the wall and then got a penalty that seems to have upset the GPDA more than his own team; so I needed a week off…
